DJI
43844.00
-90.00 -0.20%
04:00 PM EST
SPX
6051.25
-13.75 -0.23%
04:00 PM EST
NDQ
21760.50
+22.00 +0.10%
04:00 PM EST
TN10
109.8281
-0.5156 -0.47%
04:00 PM EST
TN02
102.8672
-0.1133 -0.11%
04:00 PM EST
CL
71.09
+1.19 +1.70%
04:00 PM EST
DXY
106.94
-0.04 -0.04%
03:30 PM EST
EURUSD
1.0504
+0.0028 +0.26%
05:00 PM EST
GBPUSD
1.2622
-0.0056 -0.44%
05:00 PM EST
USDJPY
153.7450
+1.1760 +0.77%
05:00 PM EST
USDCHF
0.8920
0.0000 0.00%
05:00 PM EST
USDCAD
1.4233
+0.0015 +0.11%
05:00 PM EST
AUDUSD
0.6365
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05:00 PM EST
BTC
101359.19
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Actionables
S&P 500 Index
 Long Term (LT) DEFENSIVE  (SINCE: Sep-21)
STABLE last checked on Nov-24
We remain defensive amid economic slowdown Overall Situation
1
 .

Exit-Conditions (OR):
Stop Limit Breach
Change of Overall Situation Outlook to or .
 Mid Term (MT) SHORT  (SINCE: Jan-26)
STABLE last checked on Jan-26


Entry-Conditions (AND):
Pivotal Week Anticipating Negative Surprise
ST Reversal/Sell Signal
 Short Term (ST) SHORT    (SINCE: Jan-26)
STABLE last checked on Jan-26


Entry-Conditions (AND):
Pivotal Week Anticipating Negative Surprise
ID Reversal/Sell Signal
Positioning Stance
LT MT ST
S&P 500 Index
 Position
 Entry Date
Level		 Sep-21
@ 4448 		Jan-26
@ 4920 		Jan-26
@ 4920
 Target Risk/Ret
Level
Date		 -0.1 : 1
3800
Jun-30 		2.1 : 1
4600
Mar-31 		2.1:1
4600
Mar-02
 Exit Stop
Assmt
 None
Stable
Assumps Still Valid 		5070
Review 		5070
Review
Market Technicals
MT ST
S&P 500 Index
Pattern Falling Opening Wedge Rising Flag
Indicators
  Directionality
  Trend
  Momentum
  Rel Strength
Internals
  OnBalance Vol
  Adv / Decl
  Accu / Dist
Support
Resistance
Correlations
  10Y TN
  USDJPY
  Crude Oil
  Copper
Weekly Outlook & Perspective
 iCal
EST Event Rel Forecasts & Impact
Allday
Israel vs Hamas
Israel vs Hamas
Israel vs Hamas
Dec-16
02:30 PM NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexNY Empire State Manufacturing Index
(Dez 24)
03:45 PM PMI ManufacturingPMI Manufacturing
(Dez 24)
PMI ServicesPMI Services
(Dez 24)
Dec-17
02:30 PM Retail SalesRetail Sales
(Nov 24)
03:15 PM Industrial ProductionIndustrial Production
(Nov 24)
Dec-18
08:00 PM Monetary Policy DecisionMonetary Policy Decision
Dec-19
04:45 AM Monetary Policy DecisionMonetary Policy Decision
02:30 PM Jobless ClaimsJobless Claims
04:00 PM Existing Home SalesExisting Home Sales
(Okt 24)
10:00 PM TIC Long-Term PurchasesTIC Long-Term Purchases
  TLT Total
Dec-20
02:30 PM PCEPCE  
(Okt 24)
  PCE Price Index
Overall Situation
The Overall Situation
1
  still presents itself very mixed. We remain rather sceptical about the future outlook.
Monetary Policy
-3
  remains restrictive with quanititative tightening ongoing at regular pace. We think that markets are too optimistic in their forward rate cut expectations. At least in the near future we expect continuously mixed signals in terms of Inflation and Aggregate Demand. Which means, that rates could well go higher again, before we see some recessionary rate cuts.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Overall Situation
1
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Corporate Earnings
2
  
Monetary Policy
-3
  
Government Bonds
-2
  
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
Overall Situation
1
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Corporate Earnings
2
  
Monetary Policy
-3
  
Government Bonds
-2
  
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
The Overall Situation
1
  still presents itself very mixed. We remain rather sceptical about the future outlook.
Monetary Policy
-3
  remains restrictive with quanititative tightening ongoing at regular pace. We think that markets are too optimistic in their forward rate cut expectations. At least in the near future we expect continuously mixed signals in terms of Inflation and Aggregate Demand. Which means, that rates could well go higher again, before we see some recessionary rate cuts.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Aggregate Demand
Latest GDP figures
2
  show remarkable strength, mostly driven by US Consumer
3
 , which is holding up still fine amid resilient Employment Situation
4
 .
The slowdown which we expect for 2024 is still not becoming reality so far. As a consequence the market's expected start of rate cuts has been delayed further into the middle of next year.
With earnings season for Q4 2023 is kicking in soon, investors will closely watch margins and guidance with equities' valuations on the upper end of historical averages. So far it is too early to say anything about the timing of the landing.
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Personal Consumption Expenditures  
3
  
Private Domestic Investment
-1
  
Global Economic Activity
-1
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Personal Consumption Expenditures  
3
  
Private Domestic Investment
-1
  
Global Economic Activity
-1
  
Latest GDP figures
2
  show remarkable strength, mostly driven by US Consumer
3
 , which is holding up still fine amid resilient Employment Situation
4
 .
The slowdown which we expect for 2024 is still not becoming reality so far. As a consequence the market's expected start of rate cuts has been delayed further into the middle of next year.
With earnings season for Q4 2023 is kicking in soon, investors will closely watch margins and guidance with equities' valuations on the upper end of historical averages. So far it is too early to say anything about the timing of the landing.
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Corporate Earnings
Earnings for Q4 2024 have been rather moderate looking at approx 25% of the results. Margins seem to be under pressure but still ok.
In addition, there have been some first signs of cautious guidence which should not be overvalued yet.
We expect more valuable insights in the upcoming two weeks, when most of the magnificent six (yes, TSLA is out) will report their earnings.
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Corporate Earnings
2
  
Business Conditions  
2
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Producer Prices
4
  
US Dollar
4
  
Corporate Earnings
2
  
Business Conditions  
2
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Producer Prices
4
  
US Dollar
4
  
Earnings for Q4 2024 have been rather moderate looking at approx 25% of the results. Margins seem to be under pressure but still ok.
In addition, there have been some first signs of cautious guidence which should not be overvalued yet.
We expect more valuable insights in the upcoming two weeks, when most of the magnificent six (yes, TSLA is out) will report their earnings.
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Monetary Policy
The US Federal Reserve currently has reason to feel very confident about the progress on Inflation
4
 . Also - at least so far - the economic conditions
1
  remain very solid while showing no significant impact on the Employment Situation
4
 .
As a consequence this means, that Powell is in no rush to lower interest rates at a faster pace. It seems even likely to have no move at all on the next FOMC meeting. And there is also no change expected regarding the ongoing reduction of assets in the federal's balance sheet. Amid remaining strengths of the overall conditions we see further carefull movement of monetary policy towards rather balanced levels
-3
 .
updated: Nov-15 12:00 AM
Monetary Policy
-3
  
Inflation
4
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Monetary Policy
-3
  
Inflation
4
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
The US Federal Reserve currently has reason to feel very confident about the progress on Inflation
4
 . Also - at least so far - the economic conditions
1
  remain very solid while showing no significant impact on the Employment Situation
4
 .
As a consequence this means, that Powell is in no rush to lower interest rates at a faster pace. It seems even likely to have no move at all on the next FOMC meeting. And there is also no change expected regarding the ongoing reduction of assets in the federal's balance sheet. Amid remaining strengths of the overall conditions we see further carefull movement of monetary policy towards rather balanced levels
-3
 .
updated: Nov-15 12:00 AM
Government Bonds
The long end of US Treasuries had some temporary peak couple of weeks ago amid economic slowdown and lower inflationary pressures.
Especially the latest CPI report triggered some upside momentum in bonds and equities.
We believe that - at this stage - Inflation numbers will not further improve and rising debt pressure keeps looming on the horizon.
On the other hand the economy remains resilient. So overall the big picture for Government Bonds
-2
  presents itself rather difficult to judge.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Government Bonds
-2
  
Monetary Policy  
-3
  
Treasury Refunding Announcement
-7
  
Global Demand US Treasuries
-1
  
Save-Haven Effects
0
  
Government Debt
-7
  
Government Bonds
-2
  
Monetary Policy  
-3
  
Treasury Refunding Announcement
-7
  
Global Demand US Treasuries
-1
  
Save-Haven Effects
0
  
Government Debt
-7
  
The long end of US Treasuries had some temporary peak couple of weeks ago amid economic slowdown and lower inflationary pressures.
Especially the latest CPI report triggered some upside momentum in bonds and equities.
We believe that - at this stage - Inflation numbers will not further improve and rising debt pressure keeps looming on the horizon.
On the other hand the economy remains resilient. So overall the big picture for Government Bonds
-2
  presents itself rather difficult to judge.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Geopolitical Situation
As of now the Israel vs Hamas
-2
  looks far more better than we have anticipated after the horrible Hamas' slaughter.
Israel's reaction was strong and decisive. But diplomatic activities - at least so far - prevented other major geopolitic forces from taking large scale part in the conflict.
We remain hopefull, that the situation can be further kept under control and in the long run peace will prevail.
Other geopolicital hotspots currently do not seem to worsen.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
Israel vs Hamas  
-2
  
Iran vs USA
-1
  
Ukraine vs Russia
-3
  
Taiwan vs China
-3
  
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
Israel vs Hamas  
-2
  
Iran vs USA
-1
  
Ukraine vs Russia
-3
  
Taiwan vs China
-3
  
As of now the Israel vs Hamas
-2
  looks far more better than we have anticipated after the horrible Hamas' slaughter.
Israel's reaction was strong and decisive. But diplomatic activities - at least so far - prevented other major geopolitic forces from taking large scale part in the conflict.
We remain hopefull, that the situation can be further kept under control and in the long run peace will prevail.
Other geopolicital hotspots currently do not seem to worsen.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Features Outlook
  • Assumptions About Key Market Driving Forces And Their Motivations (Mid- & Longterm)
  • Yield Curve Related Analysis
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