Actionables
S&P 500 Index
 Long Term (LT) DEFENSIVE  (SINCE: Sep-21)
STABLE last checked on Nov-24
We remain defensive amid economic slowdown Overall Situation
1
 .

Exit-Conditions (OR):
Stop Limit Breach
Change of Overall Situation Outlook to or .
 Mid Term (MT) SHORT  (SINCE: Jan-26)
STABLE last checked on Jan-26


Entry-Conditions (AND):
Pivotal Week Anticipating Negative Surprise
ST Reversal/Sell Signal
 Short Term (ST) SHORT    (SINCE: Jan-26)
STABLE last checked on Jan-26


Entry-Conditions (AND):
Pivotal Week Anticipating Negative Surprise
ID Reversal/Sell Signal
Positioning Stance
LT MT ST
S&P 500 Index
 Position
 Entry Date
Level
Sep-21
@ 4448
Jan-26
@ 4920
Jan-26
@ 4920
 Target Risk/Ret
Level
Date
-0.1 : 1
3800
Jun-30
2.1 : 1
4600
Mar-31
2.1:1
4600
Mar-02
 Exit Stop
Assmt
None
Stable
Assumps Still Valid
5070
Review
5070
Review
Market Technicals
MT ST
S&P 500 Index
Pattern Falling Opening Wedge Rising Flag
Indicators
  Directionality
  Trend
  Momentum
  Rel Strength
Internals
  OnBalance Vol
  Adv / Decl
  Accu / Dist
Support
Resistance
Correlations
  10Y TN
  USDJPY
  Crude Oil
  Copper
Weekly Outlook & Perspective
iCal
EST Event Rel Forecasts & Impact
Allday
Israel vs Hamas
May-28
03:00 PM CS Home Price IdxCS Home Price Idx
(Mär 24)
04:00 PM CB Consumer ConfCB Consumer Conf
(Mai 24)
May-29
04:00 PM Richmond Manufacturing IndexRichmond Manufacturing Index
(Mai 24)
08:00 PM Beige BookBeige Book
May-30
02:30 PM Jobless ClaimsJobless Claims
04:00 PM Pending Home SalesPending Home Sales
(Apr 24)
May-31
02:30 AM PMI ManufacturingPMI Manufacturing
(Jan 22)
PMI ServicesPMI Services
(Jan 22)
11:00 AM CPICPI
02:30 PM PCE (PCE Price Index)PCE (PCE Price Index)  
(Apr 24)
  PCE Price Index
PCE (Personal Income)PCE (Personal Income)
  Personal Income
PCE (Personal Spending)PCE (Personal Spending)  
(Feb 24)
  Personal Spending
03:45 PM Chicago PMIChicago PMI
Overall Situation
The Overall Situation
1
  still presents itself very mixed. We remain rather sceptical about the future outlook.
Monetary Policy
-2
  remains restrictive with quanititative tightening ongoing at regular pace. We think that markets are too optimistic in their forward rate cut expectations. At least in the near future we expect continuously mixed signals in terms of Inflation and Aggregate Demand. Which means, that rates could well go higher again, before we see some recessionary rate cuts.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Overall Situation
1
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Corporate Earnings
1
  
Monetary Policy
-2
  
Government Bonds
-2
  
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
Overall Situation
1
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Corporate Earnings
1
  
Monetary Policy
-2
  
Government Bonds
-2
  
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
The Overall Situation
1
  still presents itself very mixed. We remain rather sceptical about the future outlook.
Monetary Policy
-2
  remains restrictive with quanititative tightening ongoing at regular pace. We think that markets are too optimistic in their forward rate cut expectations. At least in the near future we expect continuously mixed signals in terms of Inflation and Aggregate Demand. Which means, that rates could well go higher again, before we see some recessionary rate cuts.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Aggregate Demand
Latest GDP figures
2
  show remarkable strength, mostly driven by US Consumer
3
 , which is holding up still fine amid resilient Employment Situation
4
 .
The slowdown which we expect for 2024 is still not becoming reality so far. As a consequence the market's expected start of rate cuts has been delayed further into the middle of next year.
With earnings season for Q4 2023 is kicking in soon, investors will closely watch margins and guidance with equities' valuations on the upper end of historical averages. So far it is too early to say anything about the timing of the landing.
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Personal Consumption Expenditures  
3
  
Private Domestic Investment
-1
  
Global Economic Activity
-1
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Personal Consumption Expenditures  
3
  
Private Domestic Investment
-1
  
Global Economic Activity
-1
  
Latest GDP figures
2
  show remarkable strength, mostly driven by US Consumer
3
 , which is holding up still fine amid resilient Employment Situation
4
 .
The slowdown which we expect for 2024 is still not becoming reality so far. As a consequence the market's expected start of rate cuts has been delayed further into the middle of next year.
With earnings season for Q4 2023 is kicking in soon, investors will closely watch margins and guidance with equities' valuations on the upper end of historical averages. So far it is too early to say anything about the timing of the landing.
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Corporate Earnings
Earnings for Q4 2024 have been rather moderate looking at approx 25% of the results. Margins seem to be under pressure but still ok.
In addition, there have been some first signs of cautious guidence which should not be overvalued yet.
We expect more valuable insights in the upcoming two weeks, when most of the magnificent six (yes, TSLA is out) will report their earnings.
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Corporate Earnings
1
  
Business Conditions  
1
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Producer Prices
4
  
US Dollar
4
  
Corporate Earnings
1
  
Business Conditions  
1
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Producer Prices
4
  
US Dollar
4
  
Earnings for Q4 2024 have been rather moderate looking at approx 25% of the results. Margins seem to be under pressure but still ok.
In addition, there have been some first signs of cautious guidence which should not be overvalued yet.
We expect more valuable insights in the upcoming two weeks, when most of the magnificent six (yes, TSLA is out) will report their earnings.
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Monetary Policy
Centralbanks have switched to idle mode and stopped their hawkish stance amid Overall Situation
1
 .
Prices::Inflation are still pointing into the right direction. But we do not believe in a US economy, in which full employment
4
 , strong GDP growth
2
  can co-exist with inflation at target-levels.
We believe, that Inflation
2
  will remain sticky around the 3% YoY rates.
On the otherhand marketparticipants are anticipating significant rate cuts for 2024 which in our view is only realistic in case of major econonic drawdowns.
These expectations lead to lower longterm interest yields
-2
  which could curb overall demand and financial asset prices.
So the Fed manouvered itself - at least for now - in a very comfortable situation having a surprisingly robust economy and falling inflation rates at their hands instead of restrictive monetary policy
-2
 .
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Monetary Policy
-2
  
Inflation
2
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Monetary Policy
-2
  
Inflation
2
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Centralbanks have switched to idle mode and stopped their hawkish stance amid Overall Situation
1
 .
Prices::Inflation are still pointing into the right direction. But we do not believe in a US economy, in which full employment
4
 , strong GDP growth
2
  can co-exist with inflation at target-levels.
We believe, that Inflation
2
  will remain sticky around the 3% YoY rates.
On the otherhand marketparticipants are anticipating significant rate cuts for 2024 which in our view is only realistic in case of major econonic drawdowns.
These expectations lead to lower longterm interest yields
-2
  which could curb overall demand and financial asset prices.
So the Fed manouvered itself - at least for now - in a very comfortable situation having a surprisingly robust economy and falling inflation rates at their hands instead of restrictive monetary policy
-2
 .
updated: Jan-27 12:00 AM
Government Bonds
The long end of US Treasuries had some temporary peak couple of weeks ago amid economic slowdown and lower inflationary pressures.
Especially the latest CPI report triggered some upside momentum in bonds and equities.
We believe that - at this stage - Inflation numbers will not further improve and rising debt pressure keeps looming on the horizon.
On the other hand the economy remains resilient. So overall the big picture for Government Bonds
-2
  presents itself rather difficult to judge.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Government Bonds
-2
  
Monetary Policy  
-2
  
Treasury Refunding Announcement
-7
  
Global Demand US Treasuries
-1
  
Save-Haven Effects
0
  
Government Debt
-7
  
Government Bonds
-2
  
Monetary Policy  
-2
  
Treasury Refunding Announcement
-7
  
Global Demand US Treasuries
-1
  
Save-Haven Effects
0
  
Government Debt
-7
  
The long end of US Treasuries had some temporary peak couple of weeks ago amid economic slowdown and lower inflationary pressures.
Especially the latest CPI report triggered some upside momentum in bonds and equities.
We believe that - at this stage - Inflation numbers will not further improve and rising debt pressure keeps looming on the horizon.
On the other hand the economy remains resilient. So overall the big picture for Government Bonds
-2
  presents itself rather difficult to judge.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Geopolitical Situation
As of now the Israel vs Hamas
-2
  looks far more better than we have anticipated after the horrible Hamas' slaughter.
Israel's reaction was strong and decisive. But diplomatic activities - at least so far - prevented other major geopolitic forces from taking large scale part in the conflict.
We remain hopefull, that the situation can be further kept under control and in the long run peace will prevail.
Other geopolicital hotspots currently do not seem to worsen.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
Israel vs Hamas  
-2
  
Iran vs USA
-1
  
Ukraine vs Russia
-3
  
Taiwan vs China
-3
  
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
Israel vs Hamas  
-2
  
Iran vs USA
-1
  
Ukraine vs Russia
-3
  
Taiwan vs China
-3
  
As of now the Israel vs Hamas
-2
  looks far more better than we have anticipated after the horrible Hamas' slaughter.
Israel's reaction was strong and decisive. But diplomatic activities - at least so far - prevented other major geopolitic forces from taking large scale part in the conflict.
We remain hopefull, that the situation can be further kept under control and in the long run peace will prevail.
Other geopolicital hotspots currently do not seem to worsen.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Features Outlook
  • Assumptions About Key Market Driving Forces And Their Motivations (Mid- & Longterm)
  • Yield Curve Related Analysis
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