Every release, traced to what it does to your positions.

engulfing reads the macro calendar, scores what each event does to the instruments you follow, and turns that into a position with an entry, a target and the conditions that would end it.

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This week live
Thu 14:15 Monetary Policy Decision impact
Thu 14:30 PPI impact
Thu 14:30 Jobless Claims impact
Thu 16:00 Existing Home Sales impact
Fri 14:30 Core CPI impact
Fri 14:30 CPI impact
The impact column is the number each release is expected to move the instruments you follow — members only.
52617.00
-0.41%
DJI
7660.25
-0.26%
SPX
29456.00
-0.28%
NDQ
107.0625
-0.48%
TN10
102.4766
-0.21%
TN02
96.00
+3.19%
CL
98.74
-0.10%
DXY
1.1643
+0.13%
EURUSD

On the wire live

South Africa Gold Production (Y/Y) July: -7.4% (prev 6.2%) - Mining Production Y/Y -7.5% (-4.0%; prev -4.0%; prev R 4.3%) - Mining Production (M/M): -1.9% (prev 0.3%)
@MacrobeatL @GFXFTs Full video on YouTube: https://t.co/lnW1tehbU0
ECB Hike Is Priced In: Why the Euro and Yen Could Still Rally YouTube paywalled

The linked YouTube page shows no article content, only site boilerplate and footer links.

The ECB hike was priced in weeks ago. So the guests spent the hour on the trades that actually matter after it. Beat Nussbaumer of Macrobeat @MacrobeatL and Gunter Grimm of @GFXFTs on this week's Market Talk preview. 3:29 the full path priced in, from this week's hike to a terminal rate near 3% 5:49 the inflation swaps that argue for a hawkish tone, one year sitting at 3.47 8:20 Why the dollar couldn't rally even on a strong jobs beat 17:55 The move in the yen from 160 to 153 that isn't intervention 20:41 Why Bessent saying "I am the house" could come back to bite him
LS Preview | ECB Set To Tighten Again, But Path Beyond September Less Clear https://t.co/V2S29I5HsL Featured Stories: 1. Treasury Department To Buy Back Up To $6B In Longer-Term Debt, Triple The Normal Level - @CNBC https://t.co/2uz9grcHJA 2. Oil Extends Rally As Iran Says Ready For More Intense Conflict - @business https://t.co/gqnAV6qzkb 3. China ‘Willing’ To Hold AI Talks With US Despite Row Over Models - @business https://t.co/4j0MdDyFsK 4. Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End Of Term - @WSJ https://t.co/PIttZQhYzy 5. Justice Dept. Investigates Nvidia Deal With Groq - @nytimes https://t.co/vY7vsiLQPk
ECB Set To Tighten Again, But Path Beyond September Less Clear LiveSquawk

The ECB is widely expected to raise rates 25bp on Thursday, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50% in its second hike of 2026, with guidance beyond September uncertain.

  • Decision due 12:15 GMT, Lagarde press conference 12:45 GMT; markets fully price the 25bp move
  • Brent neared $100/bbl at the start of the week, versus mid-to-high $90s at the 23 July hold
  • Q2 euro area GDP rose 0.4% q/q, double consensus; Q1 revised up to flat from -0.2%
  • Barclays sees 2026 headline inflation forecast trimmed but 2027 profile revised higher on energy
Treasury Department to buy back up to $6 billion in longer-term debt, triple the normal level CNBC

Treasury said it will buy back up to $6 billion of 10- and 20-year notes on Thursday, triple the usual $2 billion, but yields rose as the size disappointed traders.

  • Future buyback operations will be at least $4B; Thursday's runs 20 minutes, ending 2 p.m. ET
  • 10-year hit 4.841%; 20-year 5.314%; 30-year up 5bps to 5.307%, above the 5.3% level
  • PGIM's Tipp: market expected $6-10B, Treasury came in at bottom end, sparking back-end sell-off
  • Fed rate decision in a week with traders pricing a hike; Treasury also moved to support the yen
Italy Industrial Production (M/M) Jul: 0.7% (est 0.3%; prev -1.0%) - Industrial Production WDA (Y/Y): 0.0% (est -0.6%; prev -0.6%) - Industrial Production NSA (Y/Y): 0.0% (prev 2.4%)
Italy Industrial Production NSA (Y/Y): 0.0% (prev 2.4%)
Italy Industrial Production (M/M) Jul: 0.7% (est 0.3%; prev -1.0%) - Industrial Production WDA (Y/Y): 0.0% (est -0.6%; prev -0.6%)
Kimi Maker Moonshot AI To Explore Dual Hong Kong And Shanghai IPOs To Boost Capital, Sources Say – SCMP https://t.co/feYw2m2FmU
Kimi maker Moonshot AI to explore dual Hong Kong and Shanghai IPOs to boost capital: sources South China Morning Post

Moonshot AI, the Beijing developer of Kimi K3, is weighing a Shanghai Star Market listing on top of its planned Hong Kong IPO, two sources told the SCMP.

  • Already filed confidentially in Hong Kong, targeting a listing as early as Q1 2027
  • Final pre-IPO financing round under way could value Moonshot at about US$50 billion
  • Mainland leg likely on Shanghai's Star Market, with negotiations possibly starting soon
  • Rivals Z.ai and MiniMax, both pursuing Star Market listings, have seen shares fall recently
Iran-Backed Houthis Take Control Of Yemeni Red Sea City Of Mocha – RTRS Cites Three Yemeni Government Sources
Spain Industrial Production (M/M) Jul: 0.6% (est 0.2%; prev -0.7%) - Industrial Output SA (Y/Y): 2.3% (prev 1.1%) - Industrial Output NSA (Y/Y): 2.6% (prev 3.8%)
Sweden Industrial Orders NSA (Y/Y) Jul: -0.5% (prev 29.9; prev R 29.5%) - Industrial Orders (M/M): -24.1% (prev 32.3%; prev R 32.2%) - Private Sector Production (Y/Y): 3.6% (prev 1.8%; prev R 1.7%) - Private Sector Production (M/M): 0.0% (prev 0.4%; prev R 0.3%) - Industry Production Value (Y/Y): 0.2% (prev -1.5%; prev R -0.5%) - Service Production Value (Y/Y): 5.0% (prev 3.0%; prev R 2.7%)
Norway CPI (Y/Y) Aug: 3.3% (est 3.2%; prev 3.0%) - CPI (M/M): -0.3% (prev 1.0%) - CPI Underlying (Y/Y): 3.0% (est 3.0%; prev 2.7%) - CPI Underlying (M/M): -0.5% (est -0.4%; prev 0.8%)
the full wire

How it reads the market

Three steps, in this order. A release is scored before it becomes a position, and the order is the whole argument.

01 — THE CALENDAR

Every release, weighted

CPI, payrolls, FOMC, GDP, earnings. Each one carries a forecast, a prior and a weight, so a quiet week is visibly quiet and a loaded one is visibly loaded.

02 — THE IMPACT GRAPH

Traced to the instrument

A release does not move an index directly. It moves real yields, the dollar, earnings breadth — and those move the index. The graph carries that path, with a weight on every edge.

03 — THE POSITION

Stated as something to do

Long or short, since when, at what level, with a target and the exit conditions that would end it. Checked and dated, so you can tell a current view from a stale one.

What you get inside

One workspace: the markets you follow, the calendar that moves them, and the journal of what you did about it.

Dashboard

Today in one screen — open positions, what is due before the close, and the releases already scored.

Markets

Indices, sectors, commodities, FX, crypto and bonds. Per instrument: the drivers ranked by weight, its events, its news, its candlesticks.

Watchlist

Star what you actually follow and it pins to the top of every page.

Positioning & journal

Long-, medium- and short-term stances with entries, targets and exit conditions — and the record of what was taken.

Radar & tactics

What is building before it is news, and the tactical read on each instrument.

Three perspectives

Stocks, FX and crypto — the same machinery, pointed at the market you trade.

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