DJI
36187.00
-82.00 -0.23%
06:47 PM EST
SPX
4575.25
+1.00 +0.02%
06:46 PM EST
NDQ
15915.00
+77.00 +0.49%
06:47 PM EST
TN10
110.8594
+0.5156 +0.47%
06:46 PM EST
TN02
102.4883
+0.5430 +0.53%
06:44 PM EST
CL
72.17
-1.19 -1.62%
06:46 PM EST
DXY
103.96
+0.31 +0.30%
04:00 PM EST
EURUSD
1.0797
-0.0041 -0.38%
06:56 PM EST
GBPUSD
1.2595
-0.0035 -0.27%
06:56 PM EST
USDJPY
147.1670
+0.2880 +0.20%
06:57 PM EST
USDCHF
0.8750
+0.0019 +0.22%
06:57 PM EST
USDCAD
1.3587
+0.0051 +0.38%
06:57 PM EST
AUDUSD
0.6556
-0.0077 -1.17%
06:56 PM EST
BTC
44086.90
+2469.29 +5.93%
06:55 PM EST
ETH
2295.40
+69.81 +3.14%
06:55 PM EST
S5COM
231.53
+1.07 +0.46%
04:00 PM EST
December-05
09:36 AM

10:00 AM
JOLTS Job Openings (Sep 23)
 Prev: 9.55 (Sep 23)
 Fcst: 9.6 vs Cons: 9.60
December-06
08:15 AM
ADP Employment (Nov 23)
 Prev: 113.0 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 3.4 vs Cons: 3.40

08:30 PM
CPI 

09:00 PM
December-07
08:30 AM

03:00 PM
Consumer Credit (Sep 23)
 Prev: 9.1 (Sep 23)
 Fcst: 7.5 vs Cons: 8.80
December-08
03:00 AM

08:30 AM
Employment Report (Okt 23)
 Prev: 0.2 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 0.4 vs Cons: 0.40

10:00 AM
Michigan Consumer Survey (Nov 23)
 Prev: 4.4 (Nov 23)
 Fcst: 3.2 vs Cons: 3.20
December-11
01:01 PM
December-12
08:30 AM
CPI (Dez 23)
 Prev: 0.2 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 0.4 vs Cons: 0.30

01:01 PM

02:00 PM
December-13
08:30 AM
PPI (Dez 23)
 Prev: 0.0 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 0.4 vs Cons: 0.50

02:00 PM
December-14
03:30 AM

08:15 AM

08:30 AM
Retail Sales (Nov 23)
 Prev: 0.1 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 1.0 vs Cons: 1.00

09:45 AM
PMI Manufact (Nov 23)
 Prev: 49.4 (Nov 23)
 Fcst: 49.1 vs Cons: 49.90
PMI Services (Nov 23)
 Prev: 50.8 (Nov 23)
 Fcst: 50.1 vs Cons: 50.40

09:00 PM
December-15
08:30 AM
NY Empire Idx (Jan 24)
 Prev: 9.1 (Nov 23)
 Fcst: -9.3 vs Cons: -6.40

09:15 AM
Industrial Production (Nov 23)
 Prev: -0.6 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: -2.0 vs Cons: 3.00

04:00 PM
TIC Long-Term Purchases 
 Fcst: 9.6 vs Cons: 9.60
December-18
10:45 PM
December-19
08:30 AM
December-20
10:00 AM
CB Consumer Conf (Nov 23)
 Prev: 102.0 (Nov 23)
 Fcst: 102.0 vs Cons: 101.00
Existing Home Sales (Okt 23)
 Prev: 3.79 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 3.85 vs Cons: 3.90
December-22
08:30 AM
Durable Goods (Okt 23)
 Prev: 0.0 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 0.1 vs Cons: 0.20
PCE (Okt 23)
 Prev: 0.3 (Sep 23)
 Fcst: 0.2 vs Cons: 0.20

10:00 AM
New Home Sales (Okt 23)
 Prev: 679.0 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 735.0 vs Cons: 724.00
October-25
04:30 PM
Mixed Guidance for GOOG & META 
 Act: 0.0 (0)
 Fcst: -1.2 vs Cons: -1.40
October-31
02:00 AM
BoJ shows adjust YCC target to 1% 
BoJ reacts to rising market pressure and moves target for 10yr JGB to one percent.
November-01
09:30 AM
USTreasury Less Refinancing Than Expected 
USTreasury Less Refinancing Than Expected

11:00 AM
Weak PMI 
 Act: 49.4 (Nov 23)
 Fcst: 49.1 vs Cons: 49.90

03:00 PM
FOMC No Change 
FOMC No Change
November-02
08:00 AM
BoE Hold And Wait 
BoE Hold And Wait

05:30 PM
Apple Disappoints 
 Act: 0.0 (0)
 Fcst: -1.2 vs Cons: -1.40
November-03
09:30 AM
Weak Jobs Report 
 Act: 150.0 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 200.0 vs Cons: 200.00
November-04
07:00 AM
Data Upward Revision 
 Act: 50.8 (Nov 23)
 Fcst: 50.1 vs Cons: 50.40
November-06
02:05 AM
BoJ Ueda Signals Chance For End Of Negative Rate In 2023 Is Low 
BoJ Ueda Signals Chance For End Of Negative Rate In 2023 Is Low
November-09
01:01 PM
Weak 30yr Bond Auction 
US Sold $24 Bln In 30-Year Bonds

02:06 PM
Hawkish Powell 
Fed’s Powell: Not Confident We've Achieved ‘Sufficiently Restrictive Stance’
November-10
10:00 AM
Stagflationary UoM Data 
 Act: 60.4 (Nov 23)
 Fcst: 69.5 vs Cons: 71.20
November-13
07:39 AM
Italian Funding Issues 
Italy Faces Barriers To Obtain About €90 Billion In EU Funds
November-14
08:31 AM
CPI below expectations 
 Act: 0.2 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 0.4 vs Cons: 0.30
November-15
08:31 AM
PPI below expectations 
 Act: 0.0 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 0.4 vs Cons: 0.50

08:31 AM
Strong Emp Mfg Idx 
 Act: 9.1 (Nov 23)
 Fcst: -9.3 vs Cons: -6.40

08:31 AM
Retail better than expected 
 Act: 0.1 (Okt 23)
 Fcst: 1.0 vs Cons: 1.00

04:08 PM
CSCO Disappoints 
Cisco Earnings below expectations
November-21
10:09 AM
SPX SHORT (ST) 
SPX Shortterm Short Entry @ 4548
November-22
06:01 AM
SPX FLAT (ST) 
SPX Shortterm Short Exit @ 4559
November-27
09:10 AM
SPX SHORT (MT) 
SPX MT Short Entry @ 4548

09:10 AM
SPX SHORT (ST) 
SPX ST Short Entry @ 4548

10:00 AM
Cons Confidence Dips 
Consumer Confidence Slowing

10:45 AM
Mixed FOMC Comments 
Waller and Bowman with mixed comments
November-29
08:30 AM
Strong GDP Revision 
Second Reading of Q3 GDP came in stronger than expected

08:31 AM
Weaker Inventories 
Wholesale Inventories came in waeker than expected

10:08 AM
Hawkish Barkin 
Barkin: SKEPTICAL FOR BEING ON TRACK FOR 2% INFLATION
December-01
04:00 PM
Flat DXY 
Flat DXY entered @ 103.22260284423828
Actionables
S&P 500 Index
 Long Term (LT) DEFENSIVE  (SINCE: Sep-21)
STABLE last checked on Nov-24
We remain defensive amid economic slowdown Overall Situation
1
 .

Exit-Conditions (OR):
Stop Limit Breach
Change of Overall Situation Outlook to or .
 Mid Term (MT) SHORT  (SINCE: Nov-27)
UNDER REVIEW last checked on Nov-27
Short. Watching Stop Limit closely

Entry-Conditions (AND):
Pivotal Week Anticipating Negative Surprise
ST Reversal/Sell Signal
 Short Term (ST) SHORT    (SINCE: Nov-27)
UNDER REVIEW last checked on Nov-27
Short. Watching Stop Limit closely

Entry-Conditions (AND):
Pivotal Week Anticipating Negative Surprise
ID Reversal/Sell Signal
Positioning Stance
LT MT ST
S&P 500 Index
 Position
 Entry Date
Level		 Sep-21
@ 4448 		Nov-27
@ 4548 		Nov-27
@ 4548
 Target Risk/Ret
Level
Date		 1.8 : 1
3800
Jun-30 		2.1 : 1
4200
Jan-04 		2.8:1
4500
Dec-04
 Exit Stop
Assmt
 4800
Stable
Assumps Still Valid 		4710
Stable 		4565
Stable
Market Technicals
MT ST
S&P 500 Index
Pattern Falling Opening Wedge Rising Flag
Indicators
  Directionality
0
-5
  Trend
0
0
  Momentum
0
0
  Rel Strength
2
1
Internals
  OnBalance Vol
1
3
  Adv / Decl
0
7
  Accu / Dist
1
5
Support 4360 4415
4360
Resistance 4575 4555
4575
Correlations
  10Y TN
5
1
  USDJPY
1
7
  Crude Oil
-6
8
Weekly Outlook & Perspective
 iCal
EST Event Rel Forecasts & Impact
Allday
Rather Hawkish Adhoc FOMC Remarks
Israel vs Hamas
Iran vs USA
Taiwan vs China
10:00 AM JOLTS Job OpeningsJOLTS Job Openings
(Sep 23)
Exp:
9.6
Cons:
9.6
Dec-06
08:15 AM ADP EmploymentADP Employment
(Nov 23)
Exp:
3.4
Cons:
3.4
08:30 PM CPICPI
09:00 PM Trade BalanceTrade Balance
Dec-07
08:30 AM Jobless ClaimsJobless Claims
03:00 PM Consumer CreditConsumer Credit
(Sep 23)
Exp:
7.5
Cons:
8.8
Dec-08
03:00 AM New LoansNew Loans
08:30 AM Employment ReportEmployment Report  
(Okt 23)
  Average Hourly Earnings
  Non-Farm Employment
  Unemployment Rate
Exp:
0.4
Cons:
0.4
10:00 AM Michigan Consumer SurveyMichigan Consumer Survey  
(Nov 23)
  Michigan Consumer Survey - Inflation Expectations
  Michigan Consumer Survey - Sentiment
Exp:
3.2
Cons:
3.2
Overall Situation
The Overall Situation
1
  still presents itself very mixed. We remain rather sceptical about the future outlook.
Monetary Policy
-3
  remains restrictive with quanititative tightening ongoing at regular pace. We think that markets are too optimistic in their forward rate cut expectations. At least in the near future we expect continuously mixed signals in terms of Inflation and Aggregate Demand. Which means, that rates could well go higher again, before we see some recessionary rate cuts.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Overall Situation
1
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Corporate Earnings
1
  
Government Bonds
-3
  
Monetary Policy
-3
  
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
Overall Situation
1
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Corporate Earnings
1
  
Government Bonds
-3
  
Monetary Policy
-3
  
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
The Overall Situation
1
  still presents itself very mixed. We remain rather sceptical about the future outlook.
Monetary Policy
-3
  remains restrictive with quanititative tightening ongoing at regular pace. We think that markets are too optimistic in their forward rate cut expectations. At least in the near future we expect continuously mixed signals in terms of Inflation and Aggregate Demand. Which means, that rates could well go higher again, before we see some recessionary rate cuts.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Aggregate Demand
US Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Oct P: -0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)
- Retail Inventories (M/M) Oct: 0.0% (est 0.6%; prev 0.9%)

All eyes are on the US consumer. So far the strong Employment Situation:Employment Situation and remaining Excess Savings kept consumers spending robustly.
We believe that consumption expenditures will inevitably be slowing down in 2024. The question is how deep and fast the buying power and intention will be.
Corporate America on the other hand did also rather robust lately with questionable outlook amid expected overall weakness - especially from China.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Personal Consumption Expenditures  
3
  
Private Domestic Investment
-1
  
Global Economic Activity
-1
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Personal Consumption Expenditures  
3
  
Private Domestic Investment
-1
  
Global Economic Activity
-1
  
US Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Oct P: -0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)
- Retail Inventories (M/M) Oct: 0.0% (est 0.6%; prev 0.9%)

All eyes are on the US consumer. So far the strong Employment Situation:Employment Situation and remaining Excess Savings kept consumers spending robustly.
We believe that consumption expenditures will inevitably be slowing down in 2024. The question is how deep and fast the buying power and intention will be.
Corporate America on the other hand did also rather robust lately with questionable outlook amid expected overall weakness - especially from China.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Corporate Earnings
Cisco Q1 24 Earnings:
-Adj EPS: $1.11 (exp $1.03)
-Revenue: $14.63B (exp $14.63B)
-Sees Q2 Revenue $12.6B To $12.8B (exp $14.2B)
-Sees FY Revenue $53.8B To $55.0B (exp $58.2B)

Earnings season for 3rd quarter was somewhat better than anticipated by many with an approximate earnings growth of 4-5% and very robust margins. Nevertheless guidance for upcoming quarters was rather moderate after more than 90% of companies reporting, which is inline with PMI Manufacturing
-1
 .
Biggest questionmark and takeaway relates to maginficent seven's sustainability of growth expectations. In particular NVIDIA, which raised some doubts about their China Business leading to some retreat in momentum last week.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Corporate Earnings
1
  
Business Conditions  
1
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Producer Prices
4
  
US Dollar
4
  
Corporate Earnings
1
  
Business Conditions  
1
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Producer Prices
4
  
US Dollar
4
  
Cisco Q1 24 Earnings:
-Adj EPS: $1.11 (exp $1.03)
-Revenue: $14.63B (exp $14.63B)
-Sees Q2 Revenue $12.6B To $12.8B (exp $14.2B)
-Sees FY Revenue $53.8B To $55.0B (exp $58.2B)

Earnings season for 3rd quarter was somewhat better than anticipated by many with an approximate earnings growth of 4-5% and very robust margins. Nevertheless guidance for upcoming quarters was rather moderate after more than 90% of companies reporting, which is inline with PMI Manufacturing
-1
 .
Biggest questionmark and takeaway relates to maginficent seven's sustainability of growth expectations. In particular NVIDIA, which raised some doubts about their China Business leading to some retreat in momentum last week.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Government Bonds
Barkin: SKEPTICAL FOR BEING ON TRACK FOR 2% INFLATION

The long end of US Treasuries had some temporary peak couple of weeks ago amid economic slowdown and lower inflationary pressures.
Especially the latest CPI report triggered some upside momentum in bonds and equities.
We believe that - at this stage - Inflation numbers will not further improve and rising debt pressure keeps looming on the horizon.
On the other hand the economy remains resilient. So overall the big picture for Government Bonds
-3
  presents itself rather difficult to judge.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Government Bonds
-3
  
Monetary Policy  
-3
  
Treasury Refunding Announcement
-7
  
Global Demand US Treasuries
-1
  
Save-Haven Effects
4
  
Government Bonds
-3
  
Monetary Policy  
-3
  
Treasury Refunding Announcement
-7
  
Global Demand US Treasuries
-1
  
Save-Haven Effects
4
  
Barkin: SKEPTICAL FOR BEING ON TRACK FOR 2% INFLATION

The long end of US Treasuries had some temporary peak couple of weeks ago amid economic slowdown and lower inflationary pressures.
Especially the latest CPI report triggered some upside momentum in bonds and equities.
We believe that - at this stage - Inflation numbers will not further improve and rising debt pressure keeps looming on the horizon.
On the other hand the economy remains resilient. So overall the big picture for Government Bonds
-3
  presents itself rather difficult to judge.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Monetary Policy
Centralbanks have switched to idle mode and stopped their hawkish stance amid Overall Situation
1
  and less Inflation::inflationary pressure.
On the otherhand marketparticipants are anticipating significant rate cuts for 2024 which in our view is only realistic in case of major econonic drawdowns.
These expectations lead to lower longterm interest yields
-3
  which could curb overall demand and financial asset prices.
So the Fed manouvered itself - at least for now - in a very comfortable situation having a surprisingly robust economy and falling inflation rates at their hands instead of Monetary Policy
-3
 .
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Monetary Policy
-3
  
Inflation
4
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Monetary Policy
-3
  
Inflation
4
  
Aggregate Demand
2
  
Financial Conditions
3
  
Centralbanks have switched to idle mode and stopped their hawkish stance amid Overall Situation
1
  and less Inflation::inflationary pressure.
On the otherhand marketparticipants are anticipating significant rate cuts for 2024 which in our view is only realistic in case of major econonic drawdowns.
These expectations lead to lower longterm interest yields
-3
  which could curb overall demand and financial asset prices.
So the Fed manouvered itself - at least for now - in a very comfortable situation having a surprisingly robust economy and falling inflation rates at their hands instead of Monetary Policy
-3
 .
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Geopolitical Situation
As of now the Israel vs Hamas
-2
  looks far more better than we have anticipated after the horrible Hamas' slaughter.
Israel's reaction was strong and decisive. But diplomatic activities - at least so far - prevented other major geopolitic forces from taking large scale part in the conflict.
We remain hopefull, that the situation can be further kept under control and in the long run peace will prevail.
Other geopolicital hotspots currently do not seem to worsen.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
Israel vs Hamas  
-2
  
Iran vs USA
-1
  
Ukraine vs Russia
-3
  
Taiwan vs China
-3
  
Geopolitical Situation
-2
  
Israel vs Hamas  
-2
  
Iran vs USA
-1
  
Ukraine vs Russia
-3
  
Taiwan vs China
-3
  
As of now the Israel vs Hamas
-2
  looks far more better than we have anticipated after the horrible Hamas' slaughter.
Israel's reaction was strong and decisive. But diplomatic activities - at least so far - prevented other major geopolitic forces from taking large scale part in the conflict.
We remain hopefull, that the situation can be further kept under control and in the long run peace will prevail.
Other geopolicital hotspots currently do not seem to worsen.
updated: Nov-26 12:00 AM
Features Outlook
  • Assumptions About Key Market Driving Forces And Their Motivations (Mid- & Longterm)
  • Yield Curve Related Analysis
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