Rabobabnk FX: NOK - losing its gleam? · News

10 Nov 2026 | 12:55
The NOK has sold off this month vs the EUR. That said, the NOK remains the best-performing G10 currency year to date by a wide margin. It is currently up almost 7% vs the USD measured since Dec 31 2025, and up almost 12% vs the EUR in the same period. The obvious driver of this year’s gain in the value of the NOK stems from energy prices. Norway consumes very little of the oil and gas it produces and is thus a significant energy exporter. There are other factors behind NOK strength this year. The Norges Bank was one of the first G10 central banks to hike rates this cycle back in May and subsequently hiked rates again in September. Although steady policy was confirmed at last week’s policy meeting, the Norges Bank displayed a hawkish tone. That said, speculation for another rate hike has since been undermined. There is a third potential reason for the gains in the NOK this year. Based on Norway’s strong fundamentals, it is possible that the NOK has picked up some EUR diversification flows. Despite the current pullback in NOK vs EUR, we remain constructive on its outlook and see scope for a move lower to EUR/NOK10.00 on a 12-month view.Continue Reading Here